Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 139.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was already significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. However, this situation could still be seen as a valid opportunity to sell the dollar in anticipation of a continued downward trend, which is what I did. Despite this, the pair did not experience a major decline. After moving down by 25 points, demand for the dollar quickly returned. The only significant report ahead is the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index, which, if weak, could further pressure the dollar. I will continue to look for selling opportunities consistent with the prevailing trend, especially if there is a solid upward correction in the pair. Regarding my intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenario No. 1 and scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 140.30 (green line on the chart) with a target of 140.87 (thicker green line on the chart). At 140.87, I will exit my long positions and open short positions, aiming for a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from the level. The pair is likely to rise today, especially following strong U.S. data. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 139.90 level twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the resistance levels at 140.30 and 140.87 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks the 139.90 level (red line on the chart), which is likely to lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be the 139.36 level, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions, aiming for a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction. Selling pressure is likely to increase if U.S. data is weak. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall before selling.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 140.30 level twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the support levels of 139.90 and 139.36 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price where the currency pair can be bought.
• Thick green line – the suggested price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price where the currency pair can be sold.
• Thick red line – the suggested price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.